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Historical Storm Tracks: Years potentially similar to 2002 |
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Historical Storm Tracks: Years potentially similar to 2002 |
In their May 2002 extended seasonal hurricane forecast for the 2002 season, Dr. Bill Gray and his research team detail the methodology used in determining the likely tropical activity for the coming year. The report then refers to past seasons, with similar predictive indicators. The report indcates that the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season predictors are very close to the conditions leading up to the 1951, 1953, 1957, and 1980 hurricane seasons. These charts are shown below.Note the more abundant activity in Florida, the Atlantic, and along the east coast, compared with activity in the Gulf of Mexico, especially in the 1953 chart.
Charts courtesy of the Tropical Prediction Center website, National Hurricane Center
1951 Atlantic Hurricane Tracks
In the 1951 chart, Florida experienced one landfalling storms:
a tropical storm near Punta Gorda. The bulk of activity is
in the Atlantic.
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1953 Atlantic Hurricane Tracks
The Eastern Gulf of Mexico was extremely busy during 1953. 5 tropical
storms and a hurricane
affected the state throughout the season, about a third of the storms
which formed. Overall,
activity is nearly split between the Gulf and Atlantic.
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1957 Atlantic Hurricane Tracks
Activity was evenly split between the Gulf and the Atlantic, with
two tropical systems
striking the Florida panhandle: an early tropical depression and
"Debbie" in September.
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1980 Atlantic Hurricane Tracks
Activity was predominantly in the Atlantic (only hurricane 'Allen'
in the Gulf, affecting Texas).
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